Samsung Electronics and Intel's Long-standing Rivalry
Samsung Electronics ($ssnlf) and Intel have alternated as the world's largest semiconductor companies for years. From 2011 to 2023, Samsung claimed the top spot four times, while Intel held it nine times. However, in 2024 and 2025, Nvidia surged ahead, becoming the largest semiconductor company due to the rise of generative AI.
Nvidia's Unique Position in the Market
Nvidia's compute and networking divisions primarily offer rack systems, accelerator cards, network interface cards, and switches, with a small portion of revenue attributed to direct chip sales. It is more of a full-stack AI infrastructure provider than a traditional semiconductor company.
Revenue Projections for Nvidia and Samsung
Research institutions have noted that only 50-60% of Nvidia's total revenue is considered semiconductor-related. This leads to projections of over US$105 billion in semiconductor revenue for Nvidia in 2025, and around US$155 billion in 2026, constituting 51% and 53% of its total projected revenue, respectively.
In contrast, Samsung's semiconductor division is expected to generate up to US$200 billion in 2026, driven by significant growth in its DRAM and NAND businesses—expected to increase by 170% and over 90% year-over-year, respectively. Additionally, Samsung's System LSI division is forecasted to achieve double-digit growth, allowing the company to reclaim its position as the world's largest semiconductor supplier.
Global Semiconductor Market Outlook
The global semiconductor market is projected to approach US$1.1 trillion in 2026, with memory accounting for nearly US$300 billion. However, the memory market itself could reach US$500 billion, a remarkable 130% increase from US$211.6 billion in 2025, largely driven by increasing demand for DRAM and NAND.
Record Profit Levels in DRAM and NAND
The DRAM sector previously reached peak profitability in 2017 and 2018, when margins hit 60% and 70%. With anticipated price increases, Samsung and SK Hynix are projected to achieve margins of over 70% and 75%, respectively, in 2026, aided by surging demand for DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
NAND operating margins are expected to hover around 50%, benefiting from robust enterprise SSD demand. These profit levels are likely to attract more investments in memory technologies, although new production capacities may not emerge until late 2027.
South Korea's Semiconductor Exports on the Rise
Historically, South Korea's semiconductor exports surpassed Taiwan's only during the peak memory years of 2017 and 2018. In January 2026, South Korea's semiconductor exports reached US$20.54 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 102.7%. In the first 10 days of February, this growth surged to 137.6%.
In comparison, Taiwan's exports amounted to US$21 billion in January, up 61.3% year-over-year, indicating stronger momentum in South Korea's exports. Taiwan's DRAM exports in January skyrocketed by 290%, primarily due to contributions from Micron's facilities in Taiwan and Nanya Technology.
Capital Expenditure Trends in the Cloud
Global cloud service providers initially planned to increase capital expenditures by 35-40% in 2026. However, the ongoing AI infrastructure arms race and rising costs of DRAM and enterprise SSDs have led to a revision, with projections now suggesting a 55-60% increase in capital expenditures—an unexpected side effect of the current memory price surge. For more insights on these market trends, visit Inside Ticker.